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Lower start on tap on mixed earnings, claims data

July 24th, 2008 · No Comments

Small-cap stocks are expected to open slightly lower, pulled down by a mixed tone on the earnings front and by soft economic data in the employment picture. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was off about 0.3% in after-hours trading, which suggests a cash open near 717.00.

The weekly claims report came in well above analyst expectations, with the headline figure at 406,000 compared with a median forecast closer to 380,000. The immediate response to the number was a mild extension of the overnight dip in S&P 500 futures. The market will also get a chance to respond to existing home sales data later this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Crude oil prices were up modestly ahead of the U.S. open, but did slip to 7-week lows overnight and have seen a dramatic $23-dollar-a-barrel freefall in recent days. The dollar saw a big rally Wednesday, but was narrowly mixed this morning and pulled back after the weekly claims figure.

On the earnings front, there were several big-name companies out with results this morning, but the returns were mixed and investors did not appear to latch onto any story overnight as a directional bias for stocks. Dow Chemical (DOW) missed the forecast and was modestly lower ahead of the opening, while 3M Company (MMM) beat the estimate and was up about 2%.

Tech stocks were noticeably firmer than the S&P 500 in overnight futures trading, with the tech-laden Nasdaq 100 derivatives underpinned by Amazon.com (AMZN), which beat the Street’s profit estimate. Also on a positive note, Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) reached a legal agreement with Nokia that sparked a big 20% rally in QCOM shares in after-hours trading.

Looking at the chart structure from Wednesday, the market looks a little top-heavy right now and is vulnerable to a corrective pullback after soaring 12% from the July 15 lows in just seven trading sessions. Look for minor support today at 714, but a better test is down at 707.50. On the upside, resistance remains in place at 726.


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